The negotiation of the General State Budgets By 2025, beyond some conversations and contacts, it has never come to approach with a strong intention of not getting out of the table until there was an agreement, nor in the bosom of the government – among PSOE y Summer– Not much less, with parliamentary partners. But the last disagreement both within the coalition and with the executive allies following the rearma announced by the president Pedro Sánchez It may have finished giving the coup to some accounts whose approval, over the months, have been moving away more and more.
The Moncloa has carefully avoided what would be its second consecutive failure when approved a budget, although the truth is that no one seems to have ahead of accounts that, even if they were presented right now, They would be valid for less than half a yearsince they would have to face a parliamentary process of around three months. In fact, the government’s socialist wing has already had some slip in which he has confessed that he is practically impossible to have budgets: at the end of March, for example, the Minister of Education and spokesman for the Executive, Pilar joyhe assured to present a project that was not to receive support in Congress It would be “a loss of time”although the Executive is obliged by the Constitution to do so.
Alegría had to unfold those words shortly after pronouncing them and, a few days ago, President Sánchez himself assured that “The Government of Spain is committed to the presentation of the budgets” and promised to “work discreetly with parliamentary groups to be able to present them.” But the truth is that, for months now, nothing has moved, and neither the parliamentary partners nor some government sources consulted in the last dates trust that that will change.
The problem is not only a calendar, nor that the relationship with Junts has passed in recent months for several serious shocks, although now it is in a moment of greater stability. These obstacles continue to make a negotiation difficult, but in recent weeks another one has been added: The sudden turn in government defense policy, who has faced him with his leftist partners in Congress (ERC, EH Bildu, Podemos and BNG) and that he has even generated serious tensions in his bosom, with IU threatening to break for the purchase of ammunition to Israel worth six million euros.
The controversy unleashed by that contract for the acquisition of military material has forced the Moncloa to reverse and cancel the agreement, but the truth is that misgivings in the Executive continue. And present some general state budgets He would mean that, surely, they would rekindle, Since these accounts should include the abrupt increase of 10,000 million in the defense budget to reach the equivalent of 2% of GDP in military spending, which adds rejects (some of its currents with more intensity than others).
In fact, to avoid these problems, Sánchez has maneuvered to prevent his plan to rearme to have to go through Congress. Through several accounting vericuetos, the Ministry of Finance has managed to gather 10,000 million euros already consigned in the budgets in force (those of 2023), which will allow you not to have to receive authorization from the lower house. The president not only wants to avoid the wear and tear that would be a parliamentary debate about his plan: to take him to Congress, he could only take it forward with the PP, which could either tear it down, which would be a very hard blow to the government, or could approve it, which would move the executive even more from its leftist allies.
The problem for Sánchez is that This devilish scenario does not seem to have an expiration date. The Constitution establishes that the Treasury must present the bill of accounts by 2026 before October 1 of this year. And, if I did, this text should collect the entire increase in the investment in defense that the Government has already announced for this year, if no more, since NATO is considering demanding from the Member States a military expenditure equivalent to 3% of its GDP, and not 2%, as until now. That scenario is unassumable for IU, ERC, EH Bildu, Podemos or BNG. And, therefore, the future budget for the Executive paints equally black as the present.
