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Among the countries in Southeast Asia, only Indonesia and Vietnam did not make the commitment, while the Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore endorsed the pact. But the region in general has not been growing at the minimum 16.4 per cent rate of increase in renewables capacity scientists say is needed to meet the global target through to the end of the decade.
This year’s Earth Day is dedicated not just to uniting countries around renewable energy, but to encourage people on the ground to hold their governments accountable for their promises.
Earth Day, which is celebrated every year on 22 April, marks the anniversary of the birth of the modern environmental movement, when millions protested against the negative impacts of industrial development in the United States and around the world 55 years ago.
It is now a global annual event with more than 1 billion people in 192 countries taking part in the world’s largest civic-focused day of action.
In a new study published this month, Germany-based environmental policy think tank Climate Analytics said that decarbonisation pledges, being voluntary, lack enforceability and have limited impact.
“While these pledges provide a foundation for progress, their content has been, at best, loosely integrated into nationally determined contributions and national policies so far. This year’s new round of nationally determined contribtions is an opportunity for governments to show whether these voluntary pledges will actually drive ambition and action, or be remembered as political and diplomatic posturing,” said Thomas Houlie, climate and energy policy analyst at Climate Analytics and lead author of the study.
Eco-Business takes a look which countries in the region are lagging or at the forefront of the shift to clean energy.
The Philippines: trailing on clean energy deployment
Despite signing a number of energy-related pledges at past climate conferences, the Philippines is lagging in its deployment of renewable energy, according the Climate Analytics report.
It is the only country in Southeast Asia that did not increase the share of renewables in its power mix between 2015 and 2023, the study said.
During this period, coal met most of the country’s additional power demands, despite a feed-in tariff (FIT) scheme that was in place until 2019 to spur renewable adoption. FIT is a policy designed to support the development of renewable energy sources by guaranteeing an above-market price for producers, usually involving long-term contracts, of up to 20 years.
However, since then, the government has eased energy investment restrictions, including limits on foreign ownership of energy projects, and introduced a competitive auction system to attract funding.
The Department of Energy (DOE) released last month the terms of reference for the fourth round of the Green Energy Auction Programme (GEAP), bidding 10,478 megawatts (MW) of capacity from solar, onshore wind, and integrated energy storage technologies.
It followed the last auction held in February, which was oversubsribed, adding at least 7,530.89 MW of new renewable energy.
GEAP was kickstarted in 2022 to make the procurement of renewable energy supply in the Philippines a competitive process. It is one of the policies put in place to help the country achieve the goals set under the Renewable Energy Act of 2008, which aims to reach a 35 per cent renewable energy target by 2030.
As a result of increased investor interest, the Philippines now has 57GW of prospective solar and wind projects, and had the highest amount of investment in new solar and wind projects in the region in 2023, at US$ 1.7 billion. If a quarter of this pipeline was to materialise in the latter half of the decade, the Philippines would be aligned with the Global Pledge on Renewables and Energy Efficiency’s target of tripling renewable capacity, read the analysis.
Malaysia and Thailand: narrow clean energy pipelines
Malaysia and Thailand have the most limited renewables capacity among its neighbours, revealed the study.
Malaysia’s wind and solar pipeline was 2GW as of 2023, while Thailand’s was 3 GW – the lowest ones in the region.
However, the Malaysian government has been putting initiatives in place to attract green investment and improve grid infrastructure. Its national energy transition roadmap includes a new goal of reaching 40 per cent of installed renewable power capacity by 2035 and 70 per cent by 2050. This would include 59 GW of installed solar PV capacity by 2050.
At the start of this year, the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources increased a quota of net metering for residential and commercial-industrial users for the installation of ground-mounted and floating solar systems.
Malaysia also recently introduced the Corporate Renewable Energy Supply Scheme to enable businesses to supply or purchase clean power directly from the grid with a predetermined system access charge. Renewable Energy Certificates, now available under the Malaysian Green Attribute Trading System, can be traded to further incentivise renewable energy uptake.
Thailand has been trying to drive its renewable energy expansion through fiscal incentives, but it has been facing regulatory hurdles that have stalled investment.
The government launched a new FIT scheme in 2022, alongisde a distributed solar photovoltaic net billing scheme which targets 10GW of rooftop solar PV capacity by 2037.
Tendering delays, legal disputes, and unclear selection criteria have hindered progress. A lawsuit over the 2022 wind energy procurement process, citing a lack of transparency, temporarily halted project signings.
Vietnam and Indonesia: saddled by JETP
Both Vietnam and Indonesia have Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs) that aim to drive renewables uptake with international financial backing, even if they did not join their regional neighbours by signing the global renewable energy pledge.
Yet, the JETPs’ emphasis on loans rather than grants and, in the case of Indonesia, the lack of a comprehensive framework to address the surge in new captive coal power capacity, limits their ability to drive power sector decarbonisation, said researchers from Climate Analytics.
Vietnam was until recently Southeast Asia’s renewable energy leader, having experienced a remarkable surge in solar and wind power projects between 2018 and 2020.
However, government-led renewable energy deals abruptly halted in 2021 alongside a political crackdown, leaving green power firms in a multi-year limbo.
Large renewables firms have pulled back from the Vietnam market, and have not said they would return. The socialist republic has tried to reposition itself as a clean power frontrunner. officially approved a revised version of its power development plan this month, allocating US$136.3 billion by 2030 to strengthen energy security, making solar power the country’s leading energy source, overtaking coal.
Indonesia, as Southeast Asia’s largest coal producer, faces major hurdles in its energy transition as it continues to build new coal plants to power off-grid industrial activities. The region’s largest economy has a marginal renewable energy pipeline and limited new investments towards wind and solar projects, despite its vast potential, noted the Climate Analytics report.
Indonesian president Prabowo has tried to talk up the country’s climate goals by announcing that all fossil fuel-fired power capacity, including coal plants, would be phased out before 2040. However, Indonesia’s climate and energy minister openly expressed doubts about the relevance of the JETP and Paris Agreement for Indonesia given the disparity in emissions between developing and developed nations.
While the ministry of environment has since reaffirmed Indonesia’s commitment to global climate agreements, these conflicting statements reflect a “growing internal debate over the country’s climate finance”, the study’s authors said.
“With limited financial support, Indonesia’s ability to implement an ambitious coal phase-out and expand renewable energy deployment remains highly uncertain, risking prolonged dependence on fossil fuels strategy and energy transition priorities,” it read.
Singapore: can the climate frontrunner support its neighbours?
Despite its small size and limited domestic energy resources, Singapore is the only country in the region that achieved the 16 per cent annual increase in renewables capacity needed for the global renewable energy pledge.
In its updated nationally determined contributions this year, it reaffirmed its target of achieving at least 2GW of installed solar capacity by 2030, with rooftop solar covering 3 per cent of projected power demand by the end of the decade.
Alongside domestic renewables expansion, the city-state plans to import up to 6GW of low-carbon electricity with an emissions intensity three times lower than the current global average, but at least three times higher than benchmarks compatible with the Paris Agreement.
It is also developing regional power grids to access low carbon electricity from neighbouring economies like the Lao PDR-Thailand-Malaysia-Singapore Power Integration Project, which aims to import up to 100MW of hydropower as well as a cable linking Australia’s northern territory to Singapore in order to deploy up to 20GW of solar capacity.
However, the report noted that Singapore should raise its climate ambition, accelerating decarbonisation efforts and transitioning away from fossil fuels, particularly fossil gas. Singapore uses gas for 95 per cent of its energy and is the world’s most fossil fuel-dependent nation.
“Singapore has the opportunity to support its neighbours and position itself as a climate leader that aligns with global efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C,” it said.
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