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President Donald Trump gave a speech to the House Republican campaign arm on Tuesday night in which he bragged about how his tariff policy is going to be a boon for Republicans in the 2026 midterms.
“I really think we’re helped a lot by the tariffs situation that’s going on. Which is a good situation, not a bad. It’s great, it’s going to be legendary, you watch,” Trump said at a fundraising dinner for the National Republican Congressional Committee, adding later that Republicans are going to “kick [Democrats’] asses” in the midterms.
Trump’s bold prediction is unlikely to hold up well.
So far, the insane tariffs he’s placed on nearly every country on the planet are tanking the global stock markets, erasing trillions in people’s savings and retirements in just a few days.
Now that the tariffs are going into effect—including an absurd 104% tariff on Chinese imports that make up billions of the U.S. economy, and a retaliatory 84% tariff in American goods sent to China—experts say the negative impacts will start trickling down to everyone, with a recession the most likely outcome.
Placing tariffs that high on imported goods will cause the cost of nearly everything Americans buy to skyrocket—including toys, electronics, clothing, and especially groceries—Trump’s favorite word.
Companies reliant on Chinese goods could go out of business, as they will be unable to pay the steep and unforeseen tariffs that are now in place. And as companies go out of business, the country will start hemorrhaging jobs—which will start to impact even service sector jobs as Americans tighten their belts and cut back on discretionary spending.
In sum, things are about to get really freaking ugly.
“I don’t see how 104% tariffs on China will help Americans, and I see lots of ways they’ll hurt,” Justin Wolfers, an economics professor at the University of Michigan, said in a post on X.
In an appearance on MSNBC, Wolfers said that since Americans expect that prices are going to go up because of tariffs, many people are going to hold off on purchases.
“If everyone does that at the same time, that causes spending to plummet, and that’s the thing that starts the recession,” Wolfers said.
Polls already show that voters are unhappy with the tariffs.
A Navigator Research survey released Tuesday found just 42% of voters approve of the way Trump is handling the economy, with an even lower 30% of voters saying they approve of the tariffs. What’s more, 62% of voters say they are uneasy about their personal financial situation—and that’s before the worst of the tariff impacts have hit.
Worst of all for Republicans in the upcoming midterms and beyond, this recession will be difficult to explain their way out of.
Unlike previous recessions such as the one in 2008, which was caused by a housing bubble burst and a mortgage crisis, this likely recession will be easily traced back to the policy decision of one man: Trump.
And with GOP lawmakers refusing to do anything to rein in their leader’s destructive whims, they will get the blame at the ballot box in 2026.
Of course, Trump’s modus operandi has always been to lie and deflect blame.
But once Americans lose their jobs and have to pay skyrocketing prices for nearly everything they purchase, Trump will have an impossible time trying to tell those people that things really aren’t that bad and he and his party should stay in power.
Even worse for Republicans is that state media like Fox News is showing cracks in their usual fawning coverage.
“Business leaders are saying to me, ‘why are we doing this?’ Everyone was very excited about President Trump’s agenda—deregulation, tapping into energy, tax cuts—and now, boom, with these tariffs everything has changed. Why are we doing this?” Fox Business host Maria Bartiromo said Wednesday.
When Bartiromo is the voice of reason, we are in deep, deep trouble.
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