A luxury, a whim, a delicacy … the chocolate We are sweetened day to day, although, to enjoy it, we have to scratch the pocket more and more. According to the National Statistics Institute (INE), its price accumulated in the first quarter of the year a 7.9% rise, But if you compare what you had to pay for a tablet last month compared to the previous 12 months The increase reaches 24.6%. Do you have this ceiling climbing? It seems that new ‘surprises’ must be ruled out. The experts consulted by this medium warn that climatic conditions, related to phenomena such as ‘El Niño’, are causing scarcity of rainfall in countries such as Ghana y Ivory coast which cover 60% of world cocoa production. To which a productive structure formed by small farms, “little technified”and formed by old plants, in both countries. All this, with a demand that does not give truce, driven by Asian countries, and despite the emergence of other producers such as Ecuador and Brazil.
The price of chocolate accumulated in the first quarter of the year a rise of 7.9%, according to the INE. Between March 2024 and the same month of this year, the increase reaches 24.6%.
In this regard, EAE Business Professor Francesc Rafas talks about “A quite long droughtup to 4 years, from which they were recovering, but that the winds of the Sahara can ruin. “The above can also disrupt with the aim of recovering a 33% production and, in the words of this expert, “You can condition the annual deficit of more than 478,000 tonswith an supply and demand that already have an accumulated tension of 4 or 5 years. ” Brazil To compensate for the growing demand. However, he believes that these types of plantations are “incipient” and notes that the productive structure of Ghana or Ivory Coast, of small farms, They cannot face the necessary investments in fertilizers or treatments. In addition, he recalls, “as in the case of many fruits, and more in the case of trees such as coconuto, production recovery is not done from one day to another.”
“As in the case of many fruits, and more in the case of trees such as coconuto, production recovery is not done from one day to another,” says Francesc Rofas (EAE Business School)
In this sense, he mentions as an example of the price escalation that In 2022 the cocoa metric ton would quote about $ 2,320 and that, two years later, reach figures of up to $ 9,275 per metric ton. “In December, 12,000 euros were reached By metric ton, “says Rufafas. In particular, according to the statistics of the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO), this Thursday the New York cocoa futures quoted at 8,724 dollars/ton while the daily price of the ICCO did it at 8,468.30 dollars (7,451.68 euros) ton. ton and 8,044.86 dollars (7,453.96)/ton in the case of the values calculated by the same ICCO, while between February 11 and 20 the New York futures They exceeded the level of $ 10,000 per ton. The daily price of the ICCO those days recorded a range of between $ 9,741.13 and the 9,510.32 euros/ton.
“The price drop in March was due to the best offer of countries such as Ecuador, which raised its exports by 17%,” says EAE Business School who speaks of a “Light improvement” Insufficient before “an inflationary trend promoted by the consumption of Asian and emerging countries.” Some nations whose elites that would be adopting Western consumption patterns of products considered more luxury, points out this expert. In this regard, he calculates that countries such as China or Indonesia together with other Asians will boost consumption “between 7 and 9%” and, all, adds “Faced with a stagnant offer situation”. What, in his opinion, leads him to conclude that “during a good season the prices will be higher: in 2025 and 2025 they will be between 8,000 and .9000 dollars per metric ton. Without ruling out 12,000 dollars.”
From one of the most affected industries, that of the bakery and pastries, the general secretary of the Spanish Association of the Bakery, Blength and Pastry Industry (ASEMAC) Jorge de Saja recognized this week during the press conference of presentation of his annual balance that “World supply and demand are very tight And it is difficult to see a downward sharing. “In any case, he acknowledged that uncertainty had decreased after the European Council and the Eurocamara decided to delay until December 30 the entry into force of the European Regulation on deforestation. A regulation that will prohibit commercialization in the European Union (EU) of raw materials such as recently deforest cocoa or that have contributed to this phenomenon.
“World supply and demand are very tight and it is difficult to see a downward sharing”, Jorge De Saja (ASEMAC)
Scratch
And how does all this affect the consumer pocket? A practical case: the artisan -hand cupcakes and confectionery of a city like Madrid. Cocoa is a fundamental raw material For these sweet artisans: to the varieties of ‘bathed’ torrijas in chocolate, increasingly widespread, the Easter monas and eggs are added along with other more timeless products such as the chocolates. Sources from the Association of Artisan Entrepreneurs of the Pastry Sector of Madrid (Asempas), which they estimate Sales only from toasts above 7 million planned, they find that chocoalte is “120% more expensive” that a year ago and already point to two price increases only in what we take from exercise: “Prices rose in February already,”specify the sources consulted.
How have they managed it? From Asempas they assure that it depends on each company policy, but some artisans have opted for “Lower the proportion of pure chocolate” 100%to 70%, 60%… and others determined to raise prices. “In any case, the quality has not come down. In addition, the artisan is fashionable and people come more,” they say from this association.
