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It can be said that the announcement of the Methane Abatement Partnership Roadmap at the COP29 climate change summit last November was both well- yet ill-timed.
Announced by the European Commission – the European Union’s executive body that proposes policies – the roadmap aims to have countries that trade fossil fuels better cooperate on their reporting and tracking systems for methane emissions, with the aim of reducing those emissions by at least 30 per cent by 2030.
It builds on principles like the Oil and Gas Methane Partnership 2.0 (OGMP 2.0), the United Nations Environment Programme’s (UNEP) flagship initiative designed to enhance the accuracy and transparency of methane emissions reporting in the oil and gas sector.
The announcement’s timing came exactly one week after the United States’ president-hopeful Donald Trump – known to be a climate change sceptic and staunch supporter of oil and gas – secured his second term in the White House.
His victory, critics feared, would throw a spanner into global climate progress and see the oil and gas sector proliferate, leading to more methane being released into the atmosphere.
On 14 March, Trump signed a resolution to repeal a federal methane pollution fee on oil and gas producers under the US Environmental Protection Agency. The rule, which the United States Congress voted to undo on 28 February, was established to further penalise oil and gas companies by raising the fee from US$900 to US$1,500 per tonne of methane by 2026.
On top of withdrawing from the Paris Agreement, repealing climate-related executive orders from the previous administration, and scrapping funding for climate science programmes since taking office, Trump has also signed a slew of executive orders to streamline the permitting process for oil and gas projects, and reopened areas like the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge – a vast and biodiverse natural area in the northeastern corner of Alaska, United States – for oil and gas drilling.
Such actions are a cause for concern as they will undoubtedly increase planet-warming methane emissions in the near term, notes Andrew Baxter.
“About 30 per cent of today’s global warming is driven by methane from human actions,” said the senior director, Business and Energy Transition, of the US-based environmental organisation Environmental Defense Fund (EDF).
He notes that pursuing all mitigation measures now could slow the average rate of climate change over the next decade by around 30 per cent. This, he added, can prevent an additional 0.25°C of warming by 2050, and set the planet on a path to avoid more than 0.5°C of warming by 2100.
“On the other hand, slow implementation of these measures may result in an additional tenth of a degree of global-mean warming by 2050 and a 5 per cent faster warming rate. This will severely increase the impacts of climate change that we experience within our lifetimes,” Baxter said.
In 2023 alone, the oil and gas sector was already responsible for roughly 120 million tonnes (Mt) of methane emissions, according to the International Energy Agency’s 2024 Global Methane Tracker, accounting for almost a third of global methane emissions.
A September 2024 paper reports that atmospheric methane concentrations are now growing faster than at any other time since global record-keeping began about 40 years ago.
This is leading to increased focus on methane in recent years – an odourless greenhouse gas that has 80 times the global warming potential of carbon dioxide over a 20-year period – as a way to slow down climate change, which the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has warned is stepping into irreversible territory especially when it comes to sea level rise and ecosystem loss.
A “mosaic” of strategies required
The Methane Abatement Partnership Roadmap is an “essential first step” in the journey towards eliminating methane emissions from the fossil fuel industry by at least 75 per cent by 2030. This goal could help the planet stay within 1.5°C global temperature margins – according to a joint statement that accompanied the roadmap announcement by a coalition of non-governmental organisations, of which EDF is a member.
A key facet of the roadmap is its emphasis on fossil fuel importing and exporting countries building a robust measurement, monitoring, reporting and verification (MMRV) system for methane emissions.
“The announcement is significant because it outlines a collaboration between fossil fuel importers and exporters. Items two and three in the partnership are key [as they are] support systems to enhance transparency of methane emissions across fossil fuel supply chains, and MMRV of methane emissions, which is important as methane is generally easier to detect but harder to measure,” noted Yvette Manolas, a climate change and methane expert consultant.
The roadmap will build upon the Global Methane Pledge, which was first announced at COP26 in September 2021 and currently has 159 participating countries, including the European Commission. The first examples of partnership implementation under the roadmap are to be showcased at the upcoming COP30 in Brazil.
While the roadmap will not be legally binding, it provides evidence that regulation can move markets and also sends an important signal from the European government that exporters must take methane emissions more seriously, Baxter says.
For example, the EU’s Regulation on Methane Emissions Reduction in the Energy Sector, which came into effect in August 2024, has prompted some oil companies such as Sonatrach in Algeria to set methane emission targets and invest in carbon capture as well as renewable energy solutions. Oil producers in the Caspian region – bordered by Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkmenistan – also joined the OGMP 2.0 partly because of the new EU regulation.
The roadmap also follows The Oil & Gas Decarbonisation Charter (OGDC), an initiative launched at COP28 aiming for near-zero upstream methane emissions by 2030 and marks the first time that national oil companies (NOCs) – responsible for over 40 per cent of global oil production – have publicly committed to reducing emissions from their operations.
However, some non-profits like US-based Oil Change International have criticised the OGDC, calling it a “dangerous distraction” from the need to phase out fossil fuels – especially as more oil and gas fields are being approved for expansion from charter member companies. NOCs comprise more than 60 per cent of OGDC signatories and a baseline report was published in November 2024.
Despite the criticisms, the OGDC indicates some form of commitment from the fossil fuel industry to trim emissions, which is rare, Baxter says. “NOCs produce over half of the world’s oil and gas and yet have been slower to set methane emission targets. We simply can’t get the reductions that we require without the participation of this segment of the industry,” he said.
The roadmap should not be viewed as a silver bullet, but as part of a “mosaic” of strategies needed to push the oil and gas sector to reduce methane emissions, Baxter adds.
A combination of factors including well-enforced regulations, shareholder pressure and support for action, creditors conditioning access to capital on low emissions, customers demanding low methane emission energy, and even voluntary actions and initiatives will be required, he noted.
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Regulatory rollbacks might be a short-term reprieve for the US industry, but ultimately their shareholders and customers will continue to demand accountability.
Andrew Baxter, senior director, Business and Energy Transition, EDF
Modest but well needed funding
In addition to the roadmap, COP29 also saw US$500 million pledged in new funding for methane abatement initiatives across various sectors, including energy, waste, and agriculture.
While the funding pledge could be viewed as continued momentum for methane reduction efforts – with the Global Methane Pledge mobilising over US$1 billion in new grant funding between COP27 and COP28 – it represents a fraction of the estimated US$110 billion needed annually to meet 1.5°C-aligned pathways, according to the non-profit Climate Policy Initiative.
“While US$500 million sounds like a lot, on a global scale it is orders of magnitude less than the total value of the energy, waste and agriculture industry,” Manolas pointed out, but added that the funding will be “particularly important for countries that do not have the financial means to progress methane emissions reductions.”
Baxter agrees, noting that the funding will especially help non-financially viable projects, or companies that “cannot fund off the strength of balance sheets like the oil and gas majors or large national oil companies can.”
An example, he added, is the World Bank’s Global Flaring & Methane Reduction Partnership, a multi-donor trust fund that was announced in December 2023 aimed at helping the oil and gas industry in conflict-affected countries to reduce carbon dioxide and methane emissions.
“There are huge opportunities to reduce methane emissions and flaring in countries like Iraq, Nigeria, Libya and Venezuela where even modest amounts of capital can have huge impact,” Baxter said.
The road ahead
While the Methane Abatement Partnership Roadmap signals progress and collaboration, the long-term reduction of methane emissions will require continued alignment among regulations, customers, and stakeholders, especially when it comes to methane reduction protocols and approaches, Manolas noted.
“Global alignment on MMRV, regulations and certification standards will make the most difference,” she said.
A more comprehensive picture of the extent of global methane emissions will also be revealed in light of developments such as EDF’s MethaneSAT, a methane-detecting satellite in space that orbits Earth 15 times a day and is capable of sniffing out oil and gas polluters.
“We’re going to realise that the IEA estimate of fossil fuel emissions was also low and that the problem is even worse than we realised,” Baxter said, but noted that such new satellite and remote sensing technologies also present opportunities to decarbonise.
Despite the potential methane polluter fee repeal in the US and uncertainty that may follow in the years ahead, Baxter believes that forward-looking investors will likely continue demanding lower emissions in light of global market trends and forces.
“Companies that stay the course and prioritise transparency and emission reductions will stay competitive in a global market where buyers, like the EU, Japan, and South Korea, increasingly demand low-emissions energy,” he said.
“Regulatory rollbacks might be a short-term reprieve for the US industry, but ultimately their shareholders and customers will continue to demand accountability, and it pays to be prepared for when the pendulum inevitably swings back and strong methane rules come back into force.”
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