This could include unleashing the “bone-breaking” sanctions package Senator Lindsey Graham has threatened if Russia does not comply – in other words, smacking the Kremlin’s “donkey” face with a two-by-four, as General Keith Kellogg, Donald Trump’s special envoy, boasted to have done to Ukraine.
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Putin is far from invincible. He has been losing upwards of 1000 soldiers a day, his economy is overheating, and he’ll face serious domestic headaches by 2026 on the current trajectory.
If the Americans get tough, he will probably fold.
However, they could get drawn into Putin’s painstaking discussion of the details. That would be to repeat mistakes made by successive US presidents going back to Barack Obama.
Putin already gave a sense of the cards he will seek to play in those talks.
He claimed to have Ukrainian troops surrounded in Kursk and said they had no way out but death or surrender – and urged the Ukrainian government to consider their fate.
The strong implication was that they should be forced to surrender rather than be allowed to leave Russian territory.
He clearly has no intention of ceasing fire as long as the Ukrainians have the bargaining chip of a foothold there.
He claimed Russia had the upper hand all along the line elsewhere – effectively asking why on earth Russia should stop fighting now.
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Translation: if you want me to stop the violence, you’d better have a damned big carrot to offer me in exchange.
Then he raised the question of who will police the ceasefire, who will monitor violations, and who will be blamed?
That debate could drag on for days or weeks. A peacekeeping force? Unarmed patrols? Under which international organisation? From which contributing countries? And with what mandate?
He also demanded that Ukraine be prevented from mobilising troops during the proposed 30-day truce or redeploying weapons to the front. That would effectively deny Ukraine the opportunity to defend itself from renewed Russian attack.
This will give Ukrainians déjà vu. In 2014 and 2015, Putin twice used encirclement of Ukrainian troops to force punishing ceasefire deals on his own terms.
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Last time, it was the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe that provided unarmed observers to diligently count explosions and measure the size of fresh craters. They were unable to stop the war because they were constantly deceived.
In 2014, for example, Russia made a great show of agreeing to host OSCE observer missions at its border checkpoints to make sure no troops or weapons were crossing into Ukraine.
In fact, Russia confined the observers to the official customs post in accordance with their mandate, while driving tanks and troops – including the missile launcher that shot down MH17 – into Ukraine across a field just a few kilometres away.
I know because I saw them do it.
Maybe, in defiance of all expectations, the fighting will cease this weekend.
Otherwise, Putin will try to lure the Americans into open-ended diplomacy while using force to wring maximalist concessions and lay the groundwork to blame Ukraine if – when – the talks (or the ceasefire, if things get that far) collapses.
The ball is now in Trump’s court.
